Blog Post 3.6 - Polling in Nevada

1. Who made up the "universe" or polling population of this particular poll?
Nevada Democrats who will vote in the Democratic primary
2. If 25% of people say they are supporting Bernie Sanders and the sampling error is 4.8%, what is the actual range of Sanders's support?
20.2%-29.8%
3. Using the margin of error, describe a possible scenario in which Sanders would not win, but still fits the polls data.

Biden is estimated to have 18% support. Assuming that he gets the most support possible with the 4.8% error and Bernie receives the least possible support, Biden beats Bernie, 22.8% to 20.2%.

4. What were the results found in earlier polls taken in Nevada this year?
According to a USA Today poll, Biden is beating Bernie 19% to 18%. Warren has 10%. A Fox News poll shows Biden with 23%, Bernie with 17%, and Warren and Steyer both with 5%.
5. What changes took place in Nevada's candidate selection after 2004?

After 2004, Nevada adopted a caucus system, replacing their traditional primary system. This pushed them to a higher primary date so that minorities have earlier representation in the nomination process, as Nevada is very diverse.

6. Why does FiveThirtyEight say that it's harder to poll people in Nevada

FiveThirtyEight says it's harder to poll Nevadans because they work odd hours and move in and out of the state a lot.

7. Why is it easier to poll the Iowa caucuses than the Nevada caucuses?

Iowa caucuses are well established, but Nevada caucuses are new, which means that pollsters do not yet have the expertise to know which responses to weigh more and which responses to weigh less.

8. How does Nevada allow early voting if this is a caucus instead of a primary?
Nevada uses rank-choice voting to model a caucus system, even though they are just voting.
9. Why does Nevada have a fluctuating population?

Tourism and casino gambling are big industries in Nevada; these two industries produce populations that constantly move in and out of the state, or a fluctuating population.

10. Why is conducting a poll so much more expensive if you want to have an accurate Nevada poll?
Nevadans do not work traditional 9-5 jobs; instead, they operate on a 24-hr cycle. As a result, pollsters need to work around the clock to get an accurate representation, which increases the cost of polling. Also, since people constantly move in and out of the state, it is expensive to keep up-to-date phone records.